Truth Nuke: Election Day Predictions
Why Kamala Harris is going to win.
I might be one of the most optimistic Democrats heading into Election Day, and in fact, I’ve felt pretty good about this election throughout the campaign. Even when Biden was the nominee, I believed he could have pulled off a win. Certainly, I may be TOO optimistic to a point where it becomes a fault and colors my analysis, and I could believe that. However, I don’t believe in working towards an outcome if you don’t believe it will happen. Pessimism and gloom gets us nowhere. Beyond my mere gut feelings, however, there are tons of signs to feel good about Kamala Harris’ chances on Tuesday. Before I get into any definite predictions, let me start with why I feel good about winning on Tuesday overall.
Early vote analysis is largely useless at this point, especially as mail voting becomes depolarized- Democrats use it less than past elections because they are going back to the polls and Republicans are using it more because the party is encouraging it. Currently, in some states, it might look like the GOP looks like they’re doing better in the early vote, but it’s largely a mirage. My home state of Pennsylvania reports mail returns by party, and Democrats are doing fairly well at this point, with a supposed vote firewall of 400,000+ early votes. While this doesn’t make PA a lock, I’ve also seen data that shows a lot of Republican early voters are just their most engaged voters- in other words, PA Republicans are eating into their election day vote, where they usually do very well, as they are voting early instead. Additionally, at every level of engaged voter, whether they voted in 0 of the last 4 elections (2022, 2020, 2018, 2016) or all 4, Democrats are beating Republicans at returning their ballots. I’ll go more into PA during my predictions, but there is a strong case for PA going blue.
At the same time, if PA goes blue, it’s likely Michigan goes blue as well. In both 2016 and 2020, MI voted to the left of PA. Sure, anything is possible, but MI will probably be the strongest of the Blue Wall states for Harris. Wisconsin is likely to be the closest of the Blue Wall states, but the ground game of the WI Democratic Party and trends in Dane County and the WOW counties are good for Democrats. And let’s not even forget to mention the Selzer poll showing Harris with a +3 lead in IOWA, a state Trump won by 9 points in 2020. One might be inclined to dismiss a single poll as an outlier, but when you realize that the Selzer poll is one of the most accurate polls of the Midwest and both in 2016 and 2020 signaled political movement that other polls were missing, it’s definitely noteworthy. Now, Harris might not necessarily win Iowa, but even a 5 point error in the Selzer poll presages a disaster for the Trump campaign among white Midwestern voters, especially with women. After all’s said and done, if Harris wins all 3 Blue Wall states, that’s 270 electoral votes. Game over.
When one considers that Donald Trump is a totally beatable candidate and understand that Harris needs to just perform a few fractions of a percentage point better than Hillary Clinton to win, its pretty easy to do. Additionally, get out the vote efforts for Democrats look insanely good. Democrats had zero ground game in 2020 due to Covid, allowing Republicans to dominate the ground and yet Biden still eked out a win. Now, Democrats are dominating the field game while Republicans are outsourcing it to PACs and Elon Musk. News flash, but this was a terrible idea and their GOTV efforts are nowhere to be seen. Enthusiasm, too, both anecdotally and in polling is much higher for Democrats, hitting 2008 levels of enthusiasm. Another great data point is the Washington State Primary, which has been one of the most reliable indicators of the November electorate makeup. Even in 2016, it accurately forecast Hillary’s struggles with rural white voters; in 2020, it indicated that the election was going to be a lot tighter than the Biden sweep polls were predicting. This year, the primary is signaling an even bluer electorate than 2022, where Democrats still won due to persuasion efforts.
All in all, national polling is the ONLY sign pointing to a "coin flip" election. Certainly, some states will be tight, but the polling industry wants you to believe that you should ONLY look at polls when making forecasts. Truth nuke, but they are wrong. After all this is said and done, let’s get into the fun part- predictions. Keep in mind that while I believe I have a solid grasp of the various datapoints and narratives floating around, I am by no means a data expert or statistician. These predictions are much more gut based, but that’s why they’re fun! Unlike a lot of pundits in our awful media environment, I don’t care if I fall flat on my face and am totally wrong. With all that said and done, let’s dive in!
Pennsylvania: +2 Harris
Pennsylvania is certainly the state I know best. I’ve lived here my entire life and endure the pain of election ads interrupting my YouTube videos every year. I feel incredibly certain about PA going blue. Sure, lots of polls are showing a- wait for it- TOSS-UP! But moving beyond the tied statewide polling, PA congressional district polling, which was much more accurate in both 2016 and 2020 than the statewide polls, show Harris doing as good or even better than Biden in these key districts. The concern over Harris dipping in support from the legendary white working class voters does not appear to be based in any reality. At the same time, while Harris is holding even with Biden, Trump is maxing out his rural vote. If anything, I believe Harris is poised to eat into Trump’s rural numbers. Following Fetterman’s performance in 2022, it’s not impossible to suggest a repeat showing where Harris bites into Trump’s rural margins, even if it’s a mere 3 points here and there.
Anecdotally, I’ve seen this happening in my own backyard. Before moving to Pittsburgh this August, I’ve been heavily involved in Lancaster County politics. Lancaster County is one of the biggest Republican counties, and it’s slowly turning blue. Biden narrowed Trump’s margins from 2016 to 2020, and Josh Shapiro came within a point of winning the county against Doug Mastriano in 2022. Certainly, Lancaster will probably revert back to form for a polarized Presidential race, but Democrats are making tangible gains in the rural county. 2023 saw Democrats sweep school board seats across the county, with many school districts electing their first Democrats to their boards in history. I myself ran for borough council last year in Ephrata in Lancaster County and became the first Democrat to crack 40% of the vote there while my running mates across Ephrata also saw historic results. This year, the Harris campaign opened their first ever campaign office in Ephrata and have knocked the town over three times. Driving across my 66% Republican hometown this fall, and if you guessed the partisanship based on signs, you would think it was an evenly split area.
All of this focus on anecdotes from one county out of 67 in PA might not be reason enough alone to extrapolate to statewide performances. But something tells me that when I see the houses that used to proudly display Trump signs leave them inside this year and multitudes of houses with signs for Democrats for the first time ever, something big is happening. Super anecdotally, my twice Trump-voting dad refuses to vote for him this year. As I like to say, a single story is an anecdote. But a lot of anecdotes is a data point. And these stories are looking great for the Harris campaign. Not to mention the fact that the PA Republican Party has completely outsourced their GOTV efforts to Elon Musk’s PAC, which unsurprisingly may have violated federal labor laws and completely screwed up the entire operation. Masterful gambit sir. Easy Harris victory.
Michigan: Harris +3
The following state predictions will be a lot more brief and a lot less anecdotal- I promise. Traveling west from PA, we arrive at Michigan- Trump’s worst of the Blue Wall states. In 2016, Trump won Michigan by just .23% before losing it by 2.78% to Biden. There has been a lot of consternation over Michigan due to the Biden Administration’s atrocious handling of Gaza, and while I certainly agree with the sentiment and anger expressed towards Biden for the crisis, I do not think it is likely to play a huge role in the state’s outcomes. In fact, I think Harris is poised to improve on Biden’s 2020 performance and easily crack a 3% victory over Trump. The state has incredible Democratic infrastructure, easily reelecting Governor Whitmer in 2022 and handing them majorities in both houses for the first time in decades. Additionally, if one believes the Selzer poll, independent whites and working class voters are sticking with Harris and defecting from Trump. All of these lead to a fairly solid performance for Harris. While my 3% estimate is an improvement on Biden, it’s one of my more cautious takes only because I’m not 100% certain on what role the Gaza crisis will play with Michigan’s Muslim population. I would not be surprised if Harris exceeds 3% and even breaks 4% here.
Wisconsin: Harris +1
Ah Wisconsin. Truly the weakest link in the Blue Wall states. From a .77% Trump win to a .63% Biden win, it’s the only Blue Wall state that Biden failed in 2020 to win back more than Trump did in 2016. In 2022, as well, it voted to reelect their crazy Republican Senator Ron Johnson by 1% while simultaneously reelecting their Democratic Governor Tony Evers by over 3 points. Yet, the 2023 WI Supreme Court election saw the Democratic-aligned Janet Protasiewicz cruise to an 11 point victory. All this to say, Wisconsin will be tight. While I still see Harris improving on Biden’s margins for the same reasons as Michigan, I’m giving a ballpark of 1%. The Wisconsin Democratic Party, headed by Chair Ben Wikler, has proven to be very capable of winning elections, and I think they will prove their worth yet again.
Nevada: Harris +1.5
The first of the Sunbelt States we’ll be looking at and probably the most confounding state as well. I’ll be frank and admit that I am less an expert on the politics and attitudes of the Sunbelt states than I am with the Blue Wall states just from not living in such a state. Polling shows Nevada a toss-up, as most state polls do, but Nevada is notable for its ongoing narrative of Democrats slippage with Hispanic voters. It is true that Biden performed worse with Hispanic voters than Hillary did nationally, but we have yet to see the actualization of the mass rightward swing of Hispanic voters. Additionally, Nevada was won by both Hillary and Biden by similar margins of around 2.4%. Before even any polling data, my deepest gut reaction to Nevada is I do not see how Harris loses a state that even Hillary won. Hillary was truly a juggernaut at underperforming and yet still won Nevada. The 2022 election results might lend credence to newfound Republican growth as Nevada was the only state to see a Republican beat the incumbent Democratic Governor; however, they also reelected their Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto by .8% the same year. The Culinary Union and the Reid machine have continued to show up and deliver the state to Democrats, and in the face of all the polling otherwise, I think they can and will do it again. My margin is generous in allowing for some potential for lower margins with Hispanic voters, but I still believe Harris carries the state.
Georgia: Harris +.4
Let me start by admitting that I have never been a blue Georgia believer. It was not even on my radar in 2020, and even after Biden flipped it and heading into the Georgia Senate run-offs, I was deeply skeptical both Democrats would win. And yet Senators Warnock and Ossoff proved me incredibly wrong (thankfully). By 2022, I was a believer, predicting that Senator Warnock would win again over his crummy Republican opponent. Now in 2024, I’m not going to doubt the great patriots of Georgia ever again. Even though Republican Brian Kemp cruised to reelection in 2022 over Democrat Stacey Abrams, Georgia voters have consistently shown their repulsion to MAGA election-denial politics. After Trump meddled in their state to overturn the results, enough voters are clearly comfortable ticket splitting when it comes to MAGA creeps. Juicing enough Black voter turnout will certainly be key, but I think the Harris campaign can pull it off. Marginal Harris victory.
Arizona: Harris +.6
Deep in my heart of hearts, based only on vibes, I think Harris carries Arizona. Biden became the first Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to win Maricopa County, an essential bastion of votes in the state. In 2022, the state reelected Democratic Senator Mark Kelly by 5 points over the freaky Blake Masters. AZ also defied polling in 2022 by electing Democrat Katie Hobbs over election denier Kari Lake by around .7%. Certainly, this state will be close, and if Democrats truly are losing ground with Hispanic voters, it will make winning AZ much more difficult. Polling suggests this is likely, and even for a poll denier such as myself, data shows new arrivals to the state are increasingly Republican. Despite it all, the Harris campaign does have an undoubtedly superior ground game; the aforementioned Mark Kelly recently proclaimed he was sure Harris’ GOTV efforts would lead to victory in the state. Unfounded confidence from a campaign surrogate? Or esoteric knowledge of the state from a man who won by 5 in a Republican political environment? Who’s to say… but I believe.
North Carolina: Tossup/Harris +.2
I am a Blorth Carolina believer. Before I get dinged for simply awarding every single swing state to my preferred candidate, I will say that NC is probably the one state I am logically most expecting a Trump win, but believe nonetheless. The state Democratic Party Chairwoman Anderson Clayton is just 25 years old and has completely revitalized the state party. She is a master of her craft and absolutely knows how to flip this state. Tack on NC’s own version of Doug Mastriano in Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson running for Governor while getting exposed as a virulent racist, self proclaimed “Black Nazi” and pervert, I cannot see how this race does not trickle up the ballot at least a little. However, the state remains steep for Harris. NC’s electorate is not quite similar enough to Georgia’s to count entirely on Black turnout and growth in the suburbs to win. Despite this, polling in NC has actually been better for Harris on average than in Arizona or Nevada. I could see this state going either way and I frankly won’t be surprised whatsoever regardless of what happens here on Tuesday. And yet… I believe.
Final Map: 319-219
MI +3 Harris, PA +2 Harris, Nevada +1.5 Harris, WI +1 Harris, Arizona +.6 Harris, Georgia +.4 Harris, North Carolina Tossup
As you can see, I feel pretty good about Tuesday. Kamala Harris is going to win. Voters are tired of the same old boring, racist, election denying, frenetic, and dark playbook of Donald Trump. Am I being too optimistic? Maybe. Are polls underestimating Kamala Harris? Also maybe. What’s not maybe is that Kamala Harris is going to win. Aside from all the data, all the polling, all the vibes and gut reactions, I have a pretty corny reason for believing in a Harris victory too. I believe in the American people, and above all else, I believe in God. The American story is not going to end in 2024 with the election of our homegrown variant of Hitler. Call it liberal poetry or cringe naivety, call it whatever you want. But at the end of the day, I’m choosing to put faith in the American people. I’m going to believe.